基于深度学习的跨甲状腺与乳腺结节泛内分泌系统恶性风险预测模型研究

      Research on Prediction Model of Malignant Risk of Endocrine System across Thyroid and Breast Nodules Based on Deep Learning

      • 摘要:
        目的 构建基于多任务深度学习的跨器官AI模型,实现甲状腺与乳腺结节恶性风险统一预测。
        方法 收集三家医院甲状腺结节(n=2386)和乳腺结节(n=2753)患者临床数据。基于Transformer架构构建多任务深度学习模型,采用特征共享层与器官特异性层结合的设计。通过五折交叉验证评估性能,在独立外部验证集(n=835)测试,采用SHAP分析解释模型决策。
        结果 构建的泛内分泌结节AI模型在甲状腺结节预测达到AUC 0.932(95%CI:0.914-0.951),灵敏度86.5%,特异度89.2%;乳腺结节预测AUC 0.917(95%CI:0.896-0.938),灵敏度84.3%,特异度88.7%。与单器官模型相比,泛模型在小样本数据集表现更优(P<0.01),外部验证保持稳定(AUC>0.90)。SHAP分析显示边缘不规则性、钙化类型、内部回声为共同重要特征,血流信号和TIRADS/BI-RADS分级为器官特异性特征。
        结论 成功构建高性能甲状腺-乳腺结节跨器官恶性风险预测模型,证实泛内分泌结节可通过统一深度学习架构精准风险分层,为内分泌肿瘤AI辅助诊断提供新范式。

         

        Abstract:
        Objective To construct a cross-organ AI model based on multi-task deep learning to achieve unified prediction of malignant risks of thyroid and breast nodules.
        Methods Clinical data of patients with thyroid nodules (n=2386) and breast nodules (n=2753) from three hospitals were collected. A multi-task deep learning model is constructed based on the Transformer architecture, adopting a design that combines feature sharing layers with organ-specific layers. Performance was evaluated through five-fold cross-validation, tested on an independent external validation set (n=835), and SHAP analysis was used to explain model decisions.
        Results The constructed AI model for generalized endocrine nodules achieved an AUC of 0.932(95%CI:0.914-0.951) in the prediction of thyroid nodules, with a sensitivity of 86.5% and a specificity of 89.2%. The predictive AUC of breast nodules was 0.917(95%CI:0.896-0.938), with a sensitivity of 84.3% and a specificity of 88.7%. Compared with the single-organ model, the pan-model performed better on small sample datasets (P<0.01), and remained stable in external validation (AUC>0.90). SHAP analysis revealed that edge irregularity, calcification type, and internal echo were common important features, while blood flow signals and TIRADS/BI-RADS classification were organ-specific features.
        Conclusion A high-performance cross-organ malignant risk prediction model for thyroid-breast nodules was successfully constructed, confirming that pan-endocrine nodules can be precisely stratified for risk through a unified deep learning architecture, providing a new paradigm for AI-assisted diagnosis of endocrine tumors.

         

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